четверг, 15 ноября 2012 г.

Run from crisis, run

This is rather offtopic post. I research plastic surgeries, but financial crisis, inflation and other apocaliptic scenarios is of some interest, so I tries to imagine what may happen if natural resources vanish and people start fighting for bread. Presumably "fighting" is not relavant for some regions and I tried to identify them. Brazil seems the most attractive solution for relocation, because it has abudant natural resources, land, attractive climate... OK. I am hurry too much.

So you are concerned with financial crisis, coming oil and food deficits and plan to change country of residence… In many European countries economic problems just evolve and soon will exaggerate. As such, in those countries debt is so out of control and have so high fraction of GDP, that they threaten to bring down the Euro:

Portugal 93.3%
Italy 118.4%
Ireland 94.9%
Greece 144.9%
Spain 61.0%

I do not mention the US, the major world supplier of paper money in exchange of real stuff. And the only reason creditors like China or Japan do not knock US doors asking take back paper is they are afraid such situation even more than the US.

So, probably it’s time nowadays to move to place where resources are abundant, political system is stable and you can be sure you and your kids will have own barrel or oil and piece of bread ?

It's a tough question, but there are a few things to keep in mind.

First, this is economical growth. Country with high rates of GDP growth shows potential for creation of new business venture or finding a job. China wows the world with double-digit economic growth, and Argentina, Uruguay, Paraguay, Brazil show tremendous rates of 7-10% Gross Domestic Product growth during the last decade. Brazil has become the world's seventh largest economy, on its way to displace the U.K. as the sixth.

Secondly this is resources. Most developed countries do not have own natural resource, thus situation in the world will depend on how demand for such resources as oil, gas, coil, ore, etc, will be satisfied for those countries. At least because all of them spend a fortune for military expenses, and some of them are member of nuclear club. Sounds threatening… Yes, but it’s how things work.

Among countries, having abundant natural resources, Brazil demonstrates friendliness for such people, coming from abroad, as you: threatened, afraid of social or cultural differences... Of course you can also move to other naturally rich countries, like Russia or India. There are places in Russia where people speak exclusively Chinese… just because all Russians moved out or died...

So, do not expect apocalypse will solve problem of selection new home. Make own choice, the world is all round.

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